India’s Population 2011: Thoughts on the Preliminary Results from Census

The Office of the Registrar General of India and Census Commissioner (ORG) has again pulled off the unthinkable and published the preliminary results of the population of census of the country conducted during February March 2011, within a month of completing the census. The fitting logo of this census is “Our Census, Our Future”! To compile from each enumerator the basic information, aggregate the same at different levels up to the district, check on the quality of data, tabulate and then publish the preliminary results on the current population of the country for each district, state and nation as whole by 31 March, within a month after the census count, wherein a population of over 1.2 billion has been counted from house to house, is a gigantic administrative and statistical exercise. Three cheers to the Registrar General and his team; they certainly deserve the appreciation of the nation as a whole.

The much sought after first publication of the 2011 census “Series-1, India, Provisional Population Totals, Paper-I of 2011” has been released on the morning of 31 March and the same has also been put on the web site. Fact sheets giving summary measures on selected indicators have also been released in a number of states, with district level information of the state.

The Preliminary Results are provided for each of the 640 districts of the country, and for each of the 35 states and Union Territories, as on the sunrise of March 1, 2011. The information on nine variables: population( males , females and total); population below age 6 ( school going age: boys, girls, and total), population above age 6 who are literate (males, females, and total). Using these information, data have been published for each district, state and the country as whole on:

• Population (Total, Males, Females); Decadal Growth (2001-2011); Sex ratio, Density (persons per  sq.km);

• Child Population 0-6 Years, Child Sex Ratio (0-6 Years);

• Literacy rate (Persons), Literacy rate (Males), Literacy rate (Females).

As expected, the results evoke mixed emotions of success and failure at the collective level. The basic information emanating from the report is that the population of India, as of sunrise of 1st March, 2011 is 1,210.2 million (1,210,193,422 to be exact), with 623.7 million males and 586.5 females, giving a sex ratio of 940.3 females per 1000 males. In the earlier 2001 census the population sex ratio was 932.9 and hence there has been an increase of 7 points in the sex ratio. In all the developed countries , the population sex ratio is more than 1000, which means that there are more women than men in the population, but indicating that women live longer than men, even though there is a biological excess of male births to female births in all human populations under normal circumstances ( 106 boys born for 100 girls ) because females have better survival chances at every age compared to males. Thus, the females outnumber the males in any society where there no undue bias against women. Even in India which is a patriarchal society, known to have strong son preference and lower status for women at all levels, the improvements in the population sex ratio, albeit of small magnitude, is indicative of the progress in modernization and development. In the state of Kerala, which had a matriarchal system for a long time, the sex ratio in 2011 is 1084 , the highest in the country. The lowest sex ratios are seen in Delhi, at 866, and, among larger states, Harayana, at 877.

While there was jubilation on the increase in population sex ratio from 933 to 940 between 2001 and 2011, there was absolute despair on the declines in child sex ratio (number of female children to 1000 males in between ages 0 and 6 age group) from 927 to 914. If there are no pre natal sex selective abortions of the females ( female feticide) and no differentials in the health and medical care of the female children compared to male children, then this ratio should be more than 1000 , as is found in any modern developed society. On the contrary, there seems to have been a continuing decline in the child sex-ratio from 1971 onwards across the country, and especially in the states of Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi, after the 2001 census. A number of voluntary organizations supported by the government initiated the PNDT Act (Pre-Natal Diagnostics Techniques Act) in the parliament, legally prohibiting the identification of the sex of the child during pregnancy when sonography is performed for medical diagnostic reasons during pregnancy), and making the sex identification a cognizable offence. A number of educational programs were also undertaken in support of the female child. In spite of these efforts, the decline in the child sex-ratio from 927 in 2001 to 914 in 2011 is a bit puzzling to say the least. Massive programs to improve the survival of the girl child could not have been this counter productive. There is a possibility that females under the age of 6 may be underreported since many girls in the ages of 4, 5 and 6 may have been enrolled in schools under the compulsory primary education program (under the Right to Education Act) by overstating their ages as 7 years or older. In such case, there will be surplus of girls over boys in the ages 7 to 10 and this can be checked only when the full age tables are published. For the present, there is already uproar among various women’s groups, and the debates over the issue is likely to increase in the coming months. As a popular newspaper in an editorial on April 2, 2011 pointed out: “this trend and scale of decline in rising India is shocking.” Development seems to have become gendered in India.

On the other hand, in Kerala which had relatively lower economic growth during the decade of 2001 to 2011, the 2011 child-sex ratio is 959, compared to 830 in Haryana, 866 in Delhi and 886 in Gujarat, which all have recorded faster economic growths during the last decade. Economic development and improvements in the status of women do not seem to go hand in hand in India, as is expected in modernizing societies. Within a few hours of the publications of the census results, great concerns have been raised by a number of women’s welfare groups and activists as to whether the present pattern of economic development in India, which is market oriented, male biased structural growth, should be supported at all by women in the coming years. We can expect to see more heated debates and discussions on this issue.

The 2011 census results have given encouraging news with regard to population stabilization and literacy programs. During the decade 2001-11, the decadal growth is 181 million people or 17.64% over a decade, and for the first time since 1921 the actual growth has slowed down compared to the earlier decade. The annual growth rate is 1.67%. The expert committee on Population projections set by the ORG in 2005 has projected the population of the country in 2011 at 1,192.5 million, which is just 17.7 million short of the actual count. The annual growth rates in the four northern states have declined faster in 2001-2011 compared to the earlier decade: in Uttar Pradesh (from 2.3% to 2.0% ), Bihar (2.5% to 2.2%), Rajasthan ( 2.5% to 2.1%), and Madhya Pradesh (from 2.0% to 1.8%).

On the other hand, in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the census found the growth rates to be higher than what was originally assumed. In Tamil Nadu, the committee had assumed, rather correctly on the basis of available data at that time, less than 9% decadal growth, thereby putting the estimated population of the state in 2011 at 67.4 million, from 62.41 million in 2001. In reality however, the population seems to have grown at 15.6 %, with the census recording a population of 72.1 million in 2011, a net addition of 4.7 million or almost 6% of the state population. The population projections for the state, if subjected to the natural increase as a result of surplus of actual birth rate over death rate, as recorded by Sample Registration System (SRS), during 2001-09 would only be about 68 million by 2011. The additional 4.7 million has definitely come about mostly by net immigrants from other states and to a smaller extent from legal and illegal international migration, mostly refugees from Sri Lanka on account of the civil war in that country. A large number of workers engaged in the construction industry, especially in the housing sector, has been drawn from the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa. There is growing southward migration from the northern states and this is bound to increase in the coming decades in order to fill up the acute labor shortage felt in the southern states, because of earlier reductions in fertility and to some extent governmental schemes such as National Rural Employment Gaurantee Act (NREGA) that resulted in channelizing the local unskilled laborforce to other types of employment. The migration into Tamil Nadu appears to be family migration, because of lack of differentials in the surplus between the projected and actual male and female populations. Such a large scale family migration is beneficial to both the sending and the receiving states and should be encouraged. This will also promote national integration cutting across linguistic barriers.

Similar observations, the estimated natural increase with the census figures, can also be made with regard to the state of Karnataka. The demographic diversity in India has helped the nation's overall development through the demographic force of migration, and will continue to do so for the next two decades.

Population Policies in India: A Review and Recommended Revisions

K. Srinivasan*

India is the first country, ever to launch an official national programme of family planning , as a part of its first five-year development plan (1951-56),with the objective of reducing its birth rate to levels commensurate with its developmental aspirations. Its strategy of implementation changed over the years, starting with the “clinic approach” during 1951-1961, “ extension education approach” during 1962-69, “HITTS approach” ( health system based incentive driven time- bound target –oriented schemes)which was largely camp approach to conduct vasectomies during 1969-75, and the “coercive approach” during 1975-77 implemented during the national emergency. Vasectomy, male sterilization, was the main contraceptive method, promoted during these 25 years. About 20 million vasectomies were done in India during this period, highest number of sterilizations in the world.

Post emergency, in 1977, the family planning programme suffered a serious set serious set back and vasectomy was considered as a symbol of state despotism and authoritarianism. The number of vasectomy acceptors declined sharply and the family planning needs of the people were largely met through tubectomy, the female sterilization. The “Recoil and Recovery phase” of the programme during 1977- 82 was slow but steady rising trend of tubectomy operations indicating the felt demand for limitation of family size by the married women. The targets set for acceptors were lower and the population goal was shifted to net reproduction rate of 1 (or replacement level of fertility of TFR of 2.1) setting goals for simultaneous reductions in infant and child mortality levels along with fertility levels.

In this context, came in the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and development (ICPD) convened by the United Nations at Mexico and this conference was dominated by women’s groups and human rights activists who held the view that national programme of family planning should not be an instrument used by the state to achieve any pre set fertility goals since the burden of achieving these goals fell disproportionately on women suffering the consequences of sterilizations and use of various chemical contraceptives, The Programme of Action formulated at the end of the Conference and for which India is a signatory, postulated that population policies should be viewed as an integral part of programmes for women’s development, women’s rights, women’s reproductive health, poverty alleviation and sustainable development. They argued that, henceforth, population policies should not be viewed with the sole concern of reductions in fertility rates considered desirable by planners and demographers, but by considerations of reproductive health, reproductive rights and gender equity. It was argued that developmental programmes, which are not engendered, are not only sustainable but also endangered. The Programme of Action adopted by the ICPD recommends a set of qualitative and quantitative development goals. They are: sustained economic growth in the context of sustainable development; education, especially for girls; gender equity, equality and empowerment of women; infant, child and maternal mortality reduction; and the provision of universal access to reproductive health services, including family planning and sexual health. The RCH approach came to the dominant approach in India since 1995 abolishing all family planning acceptor targets, the target –free approach ( TFA) and the contraceptive services provided based on the Community Needs Assessment Approach( CNA) . The TFA- CNN method is the dominant approach prevailing at present in many states. Integration of various services at the grass root level was the sine-qua-non of the programme.

Simultaneously, in 1992 the constitutional amendments 72 and 73 were passed by the Parliament and enactments of Panchayat Raj and Nagar Palika Acts set in motion the process of democratic decentralization. These acts ushered in a three-tier system of political governance in the country, central government, state government and the panchayats in the rural areas and the Nagar palikas in the urban areas upto the district level, by which constitutionally the powers, responsibilities and resources are to be shared by these three-tiers of elected bodies. The primary health care including family planning, primary education and provision of certain basic amenities to the people such as drinking water and roads became the responsibility of the panchayats. Another notable feature of this Act is the reservation of one third of the seats in Panchayats for women members. Thus at the grass root level the women are politically empowered by this act, on all decision making issues pertaining to social development including family planning. This is great leap forward for the Indian democracy and empowerment of women. The process of this demographic decentralization is still going on with varying speed and intensity in different states. Generally, the states are reluctant to share their powers and resources with the elected bodies of the panchayats. In some states, even the elections to the panchayats are yet to take place. Decentralization of services in the health and family planning fields became the mantra.

The policies overarching the present implementation of family welfare programmes are three: the National Population Policy -2000( NPP), the National Health Policy formulated in 2002 ( NHP) and the National Rural Health Mission launched in 2005 (NRHM). The first two policies have both quantitative and qualitative out put targets without outlining how these targets are to be achieved and what inputs are needed and how they are to be utilized. NRHM has not only laid out the desired output goals but also the input goals and strategies.

Decentralization, integration and convergence of services are the buzz words going around all the health and family planning programmes in the country. District level RCH societies have been constituted in almost all the districts and central funds for the health and RCH programmes are directly routed through these societies. There has been considerable increase in the resources ploughed into the health and family welfare programmes since 1995, especially after 2005 with the introduction of NRHM and spent through these societies.

However, a recent analysis of data collected in the national Family Health Surveys 1, 2 and 3 conducted during 1992-92, 1998-99 and 2005-06 reveals that the pace of annual progress after 1998 during the RCH phase of the programme, in 24 out 29 indicators of reproductive and child health ( such as child immunizations) is slower than in the pre-RCH phase. If adjusted for higher expenditures incurred in the RCH programmes after 1998, these differences become sharper. Similarly there appears to enormous wastage in the condoms distributed by government sources, as free supplies, falsely over-reporting the users and condoms used in the free distribution system. Decentralization and integration of health care services may not be effective unless monitored centrally and backed by full time health (medical/paramedical) professionals at the delivery level. The extent to which the community level personnel ( the Anganwadi workers and Ashas and Ushas ) will be useful in the programme is really limited.

Fertility, infant and child mortality levels in many parts of the country remain very high and in states of Bihar, Chattisgarh, , Jharkhand, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh ( with about 400 million people) and so is high levels of malnutrition of women and children. The recent World Bank study ranks this area in terms of its high levels of mortality and nutritional deficiency worse than many countries of sub-saharan Africa. On the other hand the southern and Western states of Kerala , Karnataka, Tamil Nadu , Gujarat and Maharashtra enjoy a high level of social and economic development partly fuelled by the demographic dividends of their rapid fertility declines during the past two decades. Many of the goals set in NPP-2000 and NHP-2002 such as reaching the IMR of 30 by 2010 have not been realized and IMR of 30 at the national can be expected to be reached not earlier than 2020 , if the present trends of decline continue. In 2008 the IMR ranged from 12 in Kerala to 70 in Madhya Pradesh and 67 in Uttar Pradesh. The policies do not seem to be working as expected in these states.

There is a need to revisit the population and health policies particularly with reference to these seven states. The following recommendations are worth considering.

1) The program placed total emphasis on sterilisation as the major method of family planning from the very beginning, vasectomy until 1977 and tubectomy thereafter. Quality of services offered in this regard was far from satisfactory and has not improved over time. Sterilization is as dominant a method of family planning in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu with below replacement fertility levels as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar with TFR above 4. Spacing methods should become the major methods of contraception for attracting young couples, if demographic transition is to be sustained.

Specific policy and programme measures are needed.

2) One way to start the process is to stop forthwith any incentives offered to sterilizations, to doctors, institutions and individuals. This can be achieved in two phases; first in those states, which have already achieved low fertility as Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, and then in a phased manner to the other states. The money saved from incentives should be used to improve the quality of services. This suggestion is worth serious eration.

3) We should revert back to the clinic approach with which we started the family planning programme in the first two five year plans. Family planning clinics, providing good quality contraceptive services including induced abortion on medical grounds, should be set up in every block and the services there should be freely available for any couple below the poverty line asking for such services. Others above the poverty line should be asked to pay at subsidized rates. In the high fertility states there may be a need to continue with subsidies for all types of contraceptive services and in the setting up of these clinics by qualified NGOs, but there is no need for subsidy in states where the fertility levels are already low.

4) Family planning clinics, recommended above, should not be a part of of the health system and if agreed upon can be considered a part of the Department of women and Child Welfare. The possibility of setting up a separate national corporation to establish and run these clinics can also be considered. Family planning should not erode into public health programmes. In my view integrating them with primary health care has slowed down the health care services especially maternal and childcare services and is beginning to harm both.The design and construction of such clinics should be done by professional and should carry the same insignia throughout the country. With our economy galloping at top gear , it will be a wise investment to establish these clinics across the country. They should operate independently as clinics under a private agency or a governmental agency.

The time and resources of the existing maternal and child health programme personnel should not be wasted any more to motivation of cases for family planning and they should be asked to concentrate on their maternal and child care duties.

It is time to de-link the family planning from regular maternal and child health activities which have suffered so far.

*Summary of Public Lecture delivered by the author in Bangalore under the auspices of Bangalore University and Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore on 30 July 2010.

Demographic Transition: Concepts and Relevance to Commonwealth Countries

K. Srinivasan

{ This is an extract from the paper presented at the 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians held in New Delhi during 7-9 February 2011.* }

The Commonwealth Countries (CWC) is an intergovernmental group of 54 countries that were earlier colonies of Great Britain, and choosing to remain, even after their political independence, as an association of independent nations including the United Kingdom, working for their common welfare. They are unique in the sense that all of them (excepting the colonizer, the United Kingdom) were colonized for many decades, if not for centuries, and after independence have set up strong national governments for the development of their populations. These 54 countries include 18 in Africa, 12 in Asia, 12 in America, 10 in Oceania and 2 in Europe. According to the World Population Prospects: the 2008 Revision of the United Nations, in 2010, the CWC is home to a population of 2.162 billion within a land area of 27 million sq.kms, while the total population of the world is placed at 6,908 billion in 135 million sq.kms. The average population density in the CWC whole was 125 persons per sq km, more than three times the density in the rest of the world, the global density being 48 persons per sq km. The commonwealth countries, as a whole, are a densely populated group.

The CWC is characterized by extreme diversities in the various demographic, economic and health parameters of the population living in different countries across the globe with India with a population of 1.214 billion at one end and the island of Tuvalu in Oceania with a population of 10,000 at the other end. ( Note: India’s population estimates and projections by the United Nations have been consistently overestimated compared to the Indian censuses and official projections by the Government of India) The total population of CWC in 2010 is estimated at 2162.389 million. There are four countries in CWC with population of over 100 million including India 1214 million; Pakistan 185 million; Bangladesh 164 million; and Nigeria with 158 million: there are 28 countries in the population range 1 to 100 million and the remaining 22 countries are mostly island countries with very small population in Oceania with a population less than a million. Thus India’s population is more than half the population of CWC and the demographic trends in the four large countries of the CWC are likely to determine the demography of CWC as a whole.

There are 15 countries (see table below) below replacement level Total Fertility Rate** (replacement level TFR is 2.1), with a total population of 132 million(or 6% of the total population of CWC for which TFR data were available), 12 countries with a total population of 1488 million with TFR between 2.2 and 3.5 ( 69% of the population), 10 countries with TFR between 3.5 and 5 with a total population of 279 million (13% of the population)and 8 countries with a total population of 262 million with a TFR greater than 5 (12% of the population).There are 9 countries with a total population of 1 million for which estimates of TFR values for 2005-10 period are not available.

The United Nations has classified the countries of the world ad “More Developed Countries” (MDC) and “Less Developed Countries” (LDC) for purposes of demographic and socio economic analysis and following this definition there are six developed countries in CWC, Australia, Canada, Cyprus, Malta, New Zealand and United Kingdom and the remaining 48 countries are LDCs and they are classified further into three groups : large countries with over 100 million population ( 4 countries )( LDCL); medium size countries ( 1 to 100 million population) with 24 countries (LDCM), and small countries with less than 1 million population with 20 countries (LDCS).

Though I have compiled time- series data available on various indicators for each of the countries from 1990 to 2030 from the UN Demographic Year Books, for the sake of brevity and drawing of lessons on the nature of demographic transition among countries we selected six countries, viz. Australia from the MDC group, India and Pakistan from the LDCL group, Botswana and Ghana from the LDCM group and Guyana from the LDCS group.

The 54 countries of the commonwealth have an estimated population of 2162 million in 2010 and include only six developed countries and Singapore and Malaysia that can also be included in the more developed category on the basis of their “Human Development Index” and these eight countries together have only 7.5% of the population of the CWC, and the remaining 46 less developed countries account for 92.5 % of the population. The demographic characteristics of India that accounts for 56% of the population of CWC (population of 1214 million) tend to determine the overall demographic characteristics of the CWC. As a whole the region is poor, poorer than the populations of LDCs outside the commonwealth. The silver lining is that they are all rapidly controlling their mortality and fertility rates during the past four decades. During 2005-10, across all the countries the average values were 25 for CBR, 3.2 for TFR, 40 for IMR, 65 years for expectation of life at birth and 0.59 for HDI. The mortality and fertility rates of the 48 less developed countries in the CWC are declining quite rapidly largely due to the efforts of the national governments through their various national developmental programmes especially their public health and family planning programmes.

There is no country in the first or the pre-transition stage of demographic transition, implying that in all the countries mortality rates have commenced their steady downward trend, though in Botswana and South Africa , in the eighties and ‘nineties there was an increase in death rates because of higher mortality due to HIV/ AIDs related diseases but the declining trend has since been restored. Fifteen countries with a total population of 132 million are in the fourth stage ( TFR <2.1), 12 countries with 1488 million ( that includes India) are in the final phases of the third stage ( TFR 2.3 to 3.5) and only eight countries with a total population of 262 million have TFR over 5 during 2005-10.

What was achieved over more than a century in the developed world in terms of increase in longevity and reductions in fertility have been achieved in many countries of the region within a span of three decades. For example within India in 2008 , 9 states with a total population of 445 million or 43% of the population of the country have already achieved replacement or low levels of fertility ( TFR<2.1) and this is almost four times the population of the six developed countries of CWC . The gap in the various demographic parameters between the more and less developed countries of the region is rapidly disappearing and by 2030 the differentials in TFR and growth rates are expected to be insignificant.

The differentials in the life expectancy and Human Development Index ( HDI) seem to persist because of large differences in per capita incomes even after adjusting for price differentials across countries. The differentials in old age mortality rates and educational attainments especially for females between the developed and developing countries seem also to persist.

It has to be recognized that development is a relative term. Compared to the progress made in the less developed countries outside the commonwealth, the 46 less developed countries of CWC ( excluding the six developed countries and Singapore and Malaysia) are in general economically poorer and the pace of progress is slower, especially in HDI. The remarkably better progress made in the “less developed countries” outside the commonwealth is mostly due to the outstanding progress made by China with 1.4 billion people in demographic transition and in the “human development index’. The total population in the less developed region in the world as a whole works out to 82%, compared to 94 % in the commonwealth group. Part of this relatively lower development can be attributed to the long years or decades of colonization and exploitation that they have suffered under the colonial rule; and partly, it can also be attributed to the parliamentary form of governance that they have inherited from Great Britain.

In the CWC, the countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values.

It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.

Scope of future Research: some issues worth exploring

• All the less developed countries of the world are developing during the past four decades but it has to be recognized that development is a relative term. Compared to the progress made in the less developed countries outside the system of parliamentary democracy, 46 of them in the commonwealth, the progress achieved by the countries with other forms of governance in economic growth and human development index (HDI) seems to be faster, especially in HDI. The remarkably better progress made in the “less developed countries” outside parliamentary democracy is mostly due to the outstanding progress made by China with 1.4 billion people in demographic transition and in the “human development index.’

• The total population in the less developed region in the world as a whole works out to 82%, compared to 94 % in the commonwealth group which have largely adopted the parliamentary form of democracy Part of this relatively slower development can be attributed to the long years or decades of colonization and exploitation that they have suffered under the colonial rule; and partly, it can also be attributed to the parliamentary form of governance that they have inherited from Great Britain. In the Commonwealth the countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values. It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.

In the Commonwealth, countries as Sri Lanka, Singapore and others that have adopted the Presidential form of governance have recorded greater progress in improving expectations of life and the Human Development. Similarly outside the Commonwealth, Brazil, China, Cuba, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines that have adopted other systems of governance have achieved greater progress in reductions of mortality and increase in HDI values.

It is a valid and useful research question for the political scientists and demographers to examine based on a meta-analysis of the progress of the different countries in demographic transition and human development in relation to the forms of governance that they have adopted whether the political system and forms of governance have in any way contributed to the differentials in the pace of social and economic development of the countries.. The pace of demographic transition and HDI in the coming decades is likely to be more influenced by the public policies and programmes in the fields of education, health and social security adopted by the governments of these countries than on the economic growth per se.

• There are essentially four major forms of governance:

1. Marxist/Communist System (MCS);
2. Dictatorship without popular electoral base usually from the military ranks (MDS);
3. Democratically elected system with Presidential form of democracy (DPS);
4. Parliamentary democratic system (PDS).

The present study tentatively indicates that in the earlier stages of development the second and third one, Marxist system or the Presidential form of democratic governance, may lead to faster improvements in human development, especially on health and education and better income distributions.

This issue however deserves debate. In the last category of governance system above, the developments may be slower but it is claimed that there will be stability. I do not know as what type of stability is meant; some sections of the poor may be poor on a sustained basis.

To conclude: A point raised

Based on observing the trends in the various demographic indicators and human development indices for India and other countries, one cannot but wonder whether the adoption of the Parliamentary system of governance by many former colonies of England, especially a large country such as India, was a wise decision. Perhaps, the Presidential system of governance might be better suited for a large democratic country like India in the long run .

{*The detailed tables and charts on the demographic indicators and HDI for the commonwealth countries are omitted here, to keep it simple. Please contact the blog author in Comments for these details and other questions on the paper.}

** Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she experiences the current fertility pattern throughout her reproductive span (15 to 49 years).

Whither Population Policies in India?

 { This article was published earlier in Economic Times }

K. Srinivasan

 

     Based on the 2001 census data and earlier trends in fertility and mortality rates the Registrar General of India has projected the population of the country in 2011 to be around 1193 million. The United Nations Population Division, which has consistently projected higher figures for India has estimated for the same year at 1230 million. The UN assumes that there has been a systematic undercount in our censuses which have to be corrected and hence it’s higher estimates. The 2011 census to take place in the next few months will clarify whether we are closer to the UN or GOI projections. Whatever it is we have added about 165 million in the past decade, more than the combined population of six developed countries put together: Australia, Canada, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and United Kingdom without any where matching their resources of land, water and energy. Major portion of this addition of 165 million in the past decade had occurred in the less developed Indian states of the north and among the poorer sections pushing them into further poverty. High population growth continues to be a major factor retarding development in India.

However, India is the first country to launch an official national programme of family planning, as a part of its first five-year development plan (1951-56), with the objective of “reducing its birth rate to levels commensurate with its developmental aspirations”. Its strategy of implementation changed over the years, starting with the “clinic approach” during 1951-1961, “ extension education approach” during 1962-69, “HITTS approach” ( health system based incentive driven time- bound target –oriented schemes) which was largely camp approach to conduct vasectomies during 1969-75, and the “coercive approach” during 1975-77 implemented during the national emergency. Vasectomy, male sterilization, was the main contraceptive method, promoted during the 25 years up to 1977. About 20 million vasectomies were done in India during this period, highest number of sterilizations in the world.

Post emergency, in 1977, the family planning programme suffered a serious setback and vasectomy was considered as a symbol of state despotism and authoritarianism. The number of vasectomy acceptors declined sharply and the contraceptive needs of the people were largely met through the female sterilization. The “Recoil and Recovery phase” of the programme during 1977- 82 was slow but steady with a rising trend of tubectomy operations indicating the felt demand for limitation of family size by the married women. The targets set for acceptors were lower and the population goal was shifted to net reproduction rate of 1 (or replacement level of fertility of TFR of 2.1) setting goals for simultaneous reductions in infant and child mortality levels along with fertility levels. The goals for the crude birth rate or the total fertility rate set in various five year plans were hardly met. The programmed was picking up slowly and steadily during this phase until 1995

Then came in 1994 the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and development (ICPD) held at Cairo, convened by the United Nations, and this conference was dominated by women’s groups and human rights activists who held the view that national programme of family planning should not be an instrument used by the state to achieve any pre set fertility goals since the burden of achieving these goals fell disproportionately on women suffering the consequences of sterilizations and use of various chemical contraceptives, The Programme of Action adopted in Cairo for which India is a signatory, postulated that population policies should be viewed as an integral part of programmes for women’s development, women’s rights, women’s reproductive health, poverty alleviation and sustainable development. They argued that, henceforth, population policies should not be viewed with the sole concern of reductions in fertility rates considered desirable by planners and demographers, but by considerations of reproductive health, reproductive rights and gender equity. So many clichés emerged: such as programmes which are not engendered are endangered. Family planning services have to be provided as part of a number of reproductive health services, listing 13 of them.

The RCH approach came to the dominant approach in India since 1995 abolishing all family planning acceptor targets, the target –free approach (TFA) and the contraceptive services provided based on the Community Needs Assessment Approach( CNA) . The TFA- CNN method is the dominant approach prevailing at present in many states. Integration of various services at the grass root level was the sine-qua-non of the programme.

The policies overarching the implementation of family welfare programmes since 2000 are three: the National Population Policy-2000(NPP), the National Health Policy formulated in 2002 ( NHP) and the National Rural Health Mission launched in 2005 (NRHM). In all these programmes, decentralization, integration and convergence of services are the buzz words going around all the health and family planning programmes in the country. District level RCH societies have been constituted in almost all the districts and central funds for the health and RCH programmes are directly routed through these societies. There has been considerable increase in the resources ploughed into the health and family welfare programmes since 1995, especially after 2005 with the introduction of NRHM and spent through these societies.

A recent evaluation of the approaches adopted before and after the RCH strategy using data collected in the National Family Health Surveys 1, 2 and 3 conducted during 1992-92, 1998-99 and 2005-06 revealed, that the pace of annual progress after 1998 during the RCH phase of the programme, in 24 out 29 indicators of reproductive and child health ( such as child immunizations) is slower than in the pre-RCH phase. If adjusted for higher expenditures incurred in the RCH programmes after 1998, these differences become sharper. Similarly there appears to be enormous wastage in the condoms distributed by government sources (over 50%) as free supplies, falsely over-reporting the users and condoms used in the free distribution system. Decentralization and integration may be good political slogans but they do not appear to be effective in public health and population stabilization programmes. There is a need to revisit our population policy of 2000 and work out different sets of goals and strategies; otherwise population concerns will continue to haunt us for the next few decades.

Caste Affiliations among Hindus and non-Hindus, and Poverty in Four States of India: An Empirical Analysis

{ This is a condensed version of the paper published earlier in Demography India, vol 34, No.1,  2005 }

K Srinivasan* and Padma Srinivasan**

Caste affiliation has been a major factor in the social organization of the Indian society. It is an ascription variable given to a person at the time of his/her birth and he/she carries the insignia throughout his/her life. The caste stratification of the Indian society has led to gross ill-treatment of the lower castes (all “Jathis” included under “ sudras”) by the upper castes and their exclusion from many aspects of the Indian socio-cultural and political life. This has stirred a number of social reformers in the country to protest against the caste system and demand for the treatment of all human beings as equal, and to promote the lower castes through a number of social and political measures. However, despite many reformers in the Indian soil relentlessly working to rid the Indian society of the caste system, this system seems to be surviving, and has transcended across religious groups and getting strengthened by the political forces.

Since caste is a distinguishing feature of a Hindu religion, or social structure, one would normally expect that when a person gets converted to other religions, especially Islam and Christianity, there is no longer an affiliation or identification with a particular caste in the individual’s and the household’s frame of reference. Surprisingly, in reality, this is not found to be the situation. The caste continues to be a strong identification factor for the individuals and their family members even after conversions to other religions, and the caste label may continue to tag on them for long time after conversion.

It is interesting thus to explore through an empirical analysis of the data available on religion and caste at the household level, the extent to which this caste affiliation is present even among Muslims and Christians, and to what broad category of castes they state their affiliations. In addition, we look at the socioeconomic differences across the specific castes within each of the broad categories among Hindus, considering that religious conversions have mostly been motivated by the desire for the underprivileged social groups to rise in the social ladder and economically improve their lot. The availability of data on religious affiliation and both broad and specific caste affiliations at the household level in the National Family Health Survey-2 conducted during 1998-1999 on about 90,000 representative samples of households in the country by the International Institute for Population Sciences facilitated this study.

The present paper examines to what extent Hindus as well as non-Hindus associate themselves with a caste group. Second, it examines differences in socioeconomic levels among various castes among Hindus as well as non-Hindus. Third, whereas in most earlier studies, including the one by Srinivasan and Mohanty (2004), caste has been classified broadly into three or four groups such as SC, ST, OBC, and all other castes (OC), in the present paper, we have been able to look at the specific caste of the individual within the broader classification. This overrides the assumptions made in the earlier literature that the specific castes within each of the broad classification (i.e. SC, ST or OBC) are relatively homogenous with regards to their socioeconomic or demographic status. Such a detailed analyses of the caste has been made possible by the availability of data on the specific castes in large samples from the different states in India.

Discussions and Conclusion from the Study

The present study examined the caste distributions among Hindus, Muslims, and Christians in Tamil Nadu. UP, West Bengal and Bihar, using large state-representative samples. These states are considered to be socio-politically different, with long histories of social movements aimed at eradicating caste practices and social and economic differences among castes.

What is most significant to note from this analysis is that among the Muslims half of the sample households in West Bengal, two-thirds in Uttar Pradesh, and almost all in Bihar and Tamil Nadu have reported caste affiliations.

Among Christians, one in five in Bihar, 40% in West Bengal, 57% in Uttar Pradesh and almost all in Tamil Nadu have reported caste affiliations. It is really surprising that in the state of Tamil Nadu which pioneered the movement for a caste-less society in the 1920’s with the formation of a strong Dravidian party piloting a strong anti-Brahmin movement in the state as symbolic of destruction of the caste system and promoting inter caste marriages for over seven decades, the caste stratification remains the highest not only among the Hindus but also among the Muslims and Christians in the state. This requires further research.

The study also examined both the broad caste categories such as SC, ST, OBC and OC, which are commonly used in demography and sociology studies when assessing the progress in the demographic and social changes, and also specific castes within each of the broad caste categories in the view that the castes within the broad categories are not homogenous in the socioeconomic conditions. The study looked at the deprivation levels of households as well as the educational attainment of the heads of household among the specific castes within the broader grouping.

Several key findings emerged from the present study:  In terms of proportions of households deprived (wherein the households do not have even the basic essentials), overall, the highest percentages of deprivation was found in the Bihar sample, with 46.7% of the sample considered deprived and only 19.6% well above deprived. In the remaining three states, the percentage of deprived was 22-23%, whereas those considered well above deprived ranged from 34% of the sample in UP to 46% in West Bengal.

Among Hindus, Muslims, and Christians in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the Christians tend to fare much better economically than either Hindus or Muslims. The difference between Hindus and Muslims is also less striking in these two states. In Tamil Nadu, however, the Hindus in general fare less well economically when compared to Muslims and Christians. By contrast, in West Bengal the Hindus fare better economically compared to the other two religious categories.

In all four states, the educational attainment of the head of households tended to be higher among Christians than among Hindus and Muslims. With exception of Tamil Nadu, the mean years of schooling of the heads of households was the lowest among Muslims than Hindus and Christians. However, it must be borne in mind that, in addition to the age of the head of household, other factors, such as the income of the household that might explain variations in the educational attainment have not been taken into consideration when assessing the differences across religions.

The second key finding is that there is some indication that caste affiliation among non-Hindus might be associated with the economic benefits attached with being a member of particular caste. At least in Uttar Pradesh, where there is a sizable sample of Muslims who report being non-affiliated with caste or tribe, it is evident that as socioeconomic status of households increases, there is a tendency to disassociate with caste or tribe. Unfortunately, this assumption cannot be tested among Muslims and Christians elsewhere because of the negligible samples of households from these communites that are non-affiliated with caste or tribe.

The third key finding is that there is considerable difference in social and economic conditions across SC, ST, OBC and OC categories in all four states. When assessing the overall picture of these caste categories in terms of their proportions of deprived households, it seems that the OC category fares better than SC, ST, and OBC categories in all the states, with exception of West Bengal, where the difference between the OC category and the OBC category is less obvious. Overall, the SC and ST categories tend to have higher proportions of deprived households in their communities, and the difference between the two categories tends to be less conspicuous. These findings appear to be consistent with the general view that SCc, STs, and OBCs are socioeconomically backward and therefore need subsidies and welfare assistance to push up their social and economic status.

The most salient finding however from the present study is that there is considerable variation among specific castes within the SC, ST, OBC and OC categories. While some castes under the SC, ST, or OBC categories fare poorly socioecnomically, there are others that fare equally or even better than those castes that are considered as forward and fall under the OC category. Stated differently, not all castes that fall under the OC category fare well, and some are likely to have socioeconomic conditions that are on par with those of the castes belonging to OBC or SC category.

For example, in West Bengal, the “Khatriyas” who are defined as forward caste (OC) have derpivation levels that are much higher (37%) than the levels found among castes such as “Tanti,” “Teli,” “Kurmi,” “Gope,” and “Napit” that fall under the backward caste (OBC) category and also higher than the levels found among castes such as “Shunri saha,” “Chamra,’ and “Nomoshudra” that fall under the scheduled caste (SC) category. Similarly, the mean school years of the heads of households for castes such as “Khatriya,” “Mahishya,” and “Vaishnav,” that fall under the forward caste category in West Bengal, is lower than the mean school years for castes such as “Barujibi,” and “Napit” that fall under the OBC category and caste such as “Shunri saha” that fall under the SC category.

These finding suggest that caste classifications, which have social and economic policy ramifications, may not have resulted in social and economic benefits accruing to the communities that are most in need of social and economic assistance. The original purpose of declaring castes as either forward or backward was to ensure that those communities classified as backward could improve their socioeconomic status through various upliftment schemes and raise their conditions on par with other forward communities. However, the present study finds large disparities in the socioeconomic conditions among these castes within each of the broad caste classification, suggesting that not all communitiess have benefited from social and economic welfare policies, and that equally many castes that have been classified as forward and ineligible for subsidies have not attained high socioeconomic conditions as originally thought to have.

If the demographic, social, and economic indicators at the national level have to be improved, the policies meant for improving the social and economic conditions at the micro-level need to be better formulated and implemented. The provisions of various subsidies and welfare assistance needs to be more carefully targeted at those communities with real needs, rather than directing them to broad groups falling under the pruview of “backwardness” and providing assistance to all the communities in this group irrespective of whether or not a community is really in need of such assistance.

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*Emeritus Professor, IIPS, Mumbai

**Post-doctoral Fellow, University Of Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Please contact http://www.iasp.ac.in/Demography_India.html for information on obtaining a copy of the full paper.